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> 1) Developers cannot reliably estimate software timelines.

Disagree. Developers can provide reliable low risk estimates that will most certainly be rejected or truncated by management.

The problem is not estimates, the problem is every manager fantasizing that their Captain Kirk strategy,

    "I'll have it fixed in 4 minutes, Captain"
    "Do it in 2."
is some form of motivating leadership.


EVERY manager? Hyperbole there...


I misspoke. I meant more along the lines of

> the problem is any manager

If your greater point is that some developers really are poor estimators, I agree, but all of them operate under pressure to err on the optimistic side.


There are two ways to parse that sentence:

1. Every manager does that

2. Every manager that does that is the problem




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