"I bet X will not be assassinated on this date in this way" financial products were the primary reason polymarkets were banned over a century ago.

No idea if they've somehow been legalized as a rider to a 10,000 page appropriations bill, or if they're already illegal in the US.

There is just something about it that feels off about these prediction markets. Like there is no end to the terrible incentives and negative externalities.

Personally I don't like banning vices. Regulation is much better. So I always use the ban on selling organs to anchor the "yeah, sometimes things just need to be banned" side. Online gambling in general, but particularly these prediction markets, just really don't sit right. I can see perhaps how gaming gambling could be effectively regulated(I don't believe it is currently), but these prediction markets..