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Towards the bottom of the lunk-to page:

  Meta-analysis of the effect of consistency on success
  in early learning of programming is our fourth paper
  that was presented to Psychology Programming Interested
  Group (PPIG) Annual workshop on July 2009.  

  Abstract: ... The test does not very accurately predict
                levels of performance, but by combining the
                result of six replications of the experiment,
                five in UK and one in Australia. We show
                that consistency does have a strong effect
                on success in early learning to program but
                background programming experience, on the
                other hand, has little or no effect.
http://www.eis.mdx.ac.uk/research/PhDArea/saeed/SD_PPIG_2009...

In short, the jury is still out, but there is some sort of effect showing up, and it's going to need careful experiments to find out what's really going on. It does seem to show promise, though, of finding a predictive effect.



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