We've already seen one mass-user migration from MySpace to Facebook. What happens when a newcomer caters to the needs of a large enough portion of the Facebook crowd that you get fragmentation? Will people simply accept the social fiefdoms, or will they seek out something different? Something more open?
Were this new, open network to exist, you could re-write the statement in your second paragraph to read:
"There's a big, exciting open social network out there that's more interesting and innovative than Facebook messages and friend feeds, and the user base is also getting a little more comfortable with computers and don't need Facebook to hold it's hand so much any more."
That's not to say I don't think Facebook would react positively and hook in to any open networks, but it's going to take some serious momentum to get them to pivot.
Were this new, open network to exist, you could re-write the statement in your second paragraph to read:
"There's a big, exciting open social network out there that's more interesting and innovative than Facebook messages and friend feeds, and the user base is also getting a little more comfortable with computers and don't need Facebook to hold it's hand so much any more."
That's not to say I don't think Facebook would react positively and hook in to any open networks, but it's going to take some serious momentum to get them to pivot.