> If he tells you not to start a start-up, his co-founder wife, and all the start-up friends he’s made over the last several years, will be mad at him.
One of his essays from a couple of months ago very clearly made the point that a certain group of people shouldn't be doing startups (college students). That certainly seemed to be a big change in attitude to the essays from 10 years ago, and exactly in the opposite direction compared to your theory.
The startup world is a community that only wants to hear from the successes. Those who fail are laughed off as being bitter. PG has enough insight and decency to see a larger spectrum and speak on it.
I'd think this specific remark was to discourage those who want to start a startup because it's cool. And those who really want to do it they are going to do it anyway. No matter what anyone says.
So, I guess, this advice works for everyone, in one way or another.
One of his essays from a couple of months ago very clearly made the point that a certain group of people shouldn't be doing startups (college students). That certainly seemed to be a big change in attitude to the essays from 10 years ago, and exactly in the opposite direction compared to your theory.
Edit: http://paulgraham.com/before.html